Range-bound is a strategy
Brent has held a $78–86 band for nine weeks. Realized vol has collapsed to 18%, the lowest since early 2023.
Where the asymmetry lives
- Strait of Hormuz tail risk is mispriced at ~80bps in 6M call skew.
- OPEC+ April unwind could add 1.8mb/d if discipline holds.
- US SPR refill is technically funded but politically frozen.
The trade
Long Brent 6M $95 calls, financed by selling 3M $74 puts. Net premium ~$0.40. You get paid to be patient.