The number nobody wants to print
In FY26 consensus, the big four spend $385B on capex — 31% of expected revenue. The historical norm is 14–17%.
Two ways this resolves
- AI revenue catches up. Plausible, but the curve is steep.
- Capex gets cut. Painful for NVDA, ASML, AVGO, Vertiv, and the whole power complex.
The market is currently pricing scenario 1 with conviction. The capex-to-revenue chart says scenario 2 is the underwriting risk.